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i no longer give people "yes" or "no" confirmation when invited to any type of event. i respond with the percentage that represents the chance of participation. similar to a meteorologist's "chance of precipitation". also similar to the meteorologist, i can not be blamed if completely wrong.
friends with no children (or wife) have a hard time understanding this type of answer. that's because they control their destiny. they unknowingly make hundreds of simple decisions daily that drive that destiny. I make no decisions, my destiny is driven by others.
if i predict there is a 40% chance of participation when invited to happy hour at 6pm, that mean there is a 23% chance i could be watching cartoon network, a 17% i could be in a hospital emergency room, a 11% chance i could be building a pillow fort, a 7% chance i could be attending a youth soccer game, oh and a 2% chance i will be passed out drunk in my underwear watching sports center. any one of these activities could break out at any time, and all are beyond my control.
generally the chance of participation is fairly low. know you are lucky if i ever respond with a chance over 40%. here are some examples of recent predictions.
4th birthday party for neighbor's kid, 95% chance
baby shower for wife's friend, 70% chance
wearing sponge bob underwear on my head, 63% chance
falling asleep at the mcdonald's fun land, 51% chance
re-claiming my children from child protective services, 42% chance
staying at the ballpark for 4 innings, 38% chance
staying at the ballpark for 9 innings, 12% chance
all night poker game with beer buddies, 2% chance
lost weekend in vegas involving black jack, tequila, the bunny ranch, and 5 asian dwarfs, 0% chance